WPIAL bracketology: Don Rebel, Chris Harlan forecast 2024 football playoff pairings

By: Chris Harlan
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 | 5:11 PM

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The 2024 WPIAL football playoff field is taking shape with 35 teams having already clinched a spot entering Week 9.

But this year’s qualifying process is a little different.

There are more wild card teams than ever: 16. And the WPIAL will no longer use tiebreaking formulas such as Gardner Points or margin-of-victory to select those wild cards. Instead, members of the WPIAL football committee will choose those at-large bids based on their own analysis.

That means we won’t learn until Selection Saturday which bubble teams are in and which are out. The TribLive HSSN Football Playoff Pairings show is 3 p.m. Saturday.

Until then, Chris Harlan and Don Rebel give their two cents with a little high school football bracketology. Their predicted pairings will be updated after Friday’s games.

Class 6A

Four qualifiers

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 4 Seneca Valley at No. 1 Central Catholic

No. 3. Mt. Lebanon at No. 2 North Allegheny

Harlan says: This bracket required some speculation about Friday’s outcomes. Only Central Catholic and North Allegheny have clinched spots. For now, Seneca Valley and Canon-McMillan are in playoff position and can seal the deal with a win Friday. However, the Raiders face North Allegheny and the Big Macs play Central Catholic. A loss by Canon-McMillan would open the door for Mt. Lebanon (with a win over Norwin) to sneak in.

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 4 Seneca Valley at No. 1 Central Catholic

No. 3 Mt. Lebanon at No. 2 North Allegheny

Rebel says: This is based on Mt. Lebanon beating Norwin, Seneca Valley losing at North Allegheny and Canon-McMillan falling at Central Catholic.

Class 5A

12 qualifiers (three wild cards)

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 1 Upper St. Clair – bye

No. 9 Franklin Regional at No. 8 North Hills

No. 4 Woodland Hills – bye

No. 12 Gateway at No. 5 Bethel Park/Peters Township loser

No. 2 Pine-Richland – bye

No. 10 Moon/South Fayette winner at No. 7 Penn-Trafford

No. 3 Bethel Park/Peters Township winner – bye

No. 11 Moon/South Fayette loser at No. 6 Penn Hills

Harlan says: Is there a debate about the No. 1 seed? Upper St. Clair is undefeated and the champion of what’s arguably the strongest of the three conferences. Pine-Richland’s only loss came against two-time defending 6A champion North Allegheny. The Rams also have a nonconference win over Central Catholic. The new WPIAL playoff format lets the football committee pick wild card teams. And unlike in years past, more than one wild card can come from the same conference. That’ll happen here with Allegheny Six teams Moon and South Fayette both getting in. Gateway tentatively earns the third wild card with head-to-head wins over Kiski Area and Plum (and a one-point loss to Latrobe).

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 1 Upper St. Clair – bye

No. 9 Franklin Regional at No. 8 North Hills

No. 4 Woodland Hills – bye

No. 12 Gateway at No. 5 Bethel Park/Peters Township loser

No. 2 Pine-Richland – bye

No. 10 South Fayette/Moon winner at No. 7 Penn-Trafford

No. 3 Bethel Park/Peters Township winner – bye

No. 11 South Fayette/Moon loser at No. 6 Penn Hills

Rebel says: Since its inception in 2016, the WPIAL Class 5A playoffs have been awesome, with thrilling contests along the way, usually capped with a marvelous championship game. All signs point to this November being more of the same. A lot of (deserved) love for the Allegheny Six Conference, earning seeds 1, 3 and 5, plus capturing two of the three 5A wild card spots.

Class 4A

Eight qualifiers (two wild cards)

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 8 West Mifflin or Belle Vernon/Trinity loser at No. 1 Montour

No. 5 Belle Vernon/Trinity winner at No. 4 McKeesport

No. 7 West Allegheny at No. 2 Thomas Jefferson

No. 6 Mars at No. 3 Aliquippa

Harlan says: With an eight-team bracket and only two wild cards, the football committee might have trouble here. A lot will depend on the outcome of Friday’s games. If West Allegheny (3-3, 3-1) were to defeat Montour (8-0, 4-0) on Friday, it could finish in a three-way tie with Aliquippa (5-2, 3-1) atop the Parkway. If so, Thomas Jefferson (9-0, 4-0) would draw the No. 1 overall seed. If West A loses Friday, the Indians are in position for one of the two wild cards, along with either West Mifflin or the loser of Friday’s Belle Vernon/Trinity matchup.

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 8 Belle Vernon/Trinity loser at No. 1 Montour

No. 5 Belle Vernon/Trinity winner at No. 4 McKeesport

No. 7 West Allegheny at No. 2 Thomas Jefferson

No. 6 Mars at No. 3 Aliquippa

Rebel says: Obviously a lot can change if West Allegheny were to knock off Montour on Friday, but this small bracket comes together easily if there are no surprises in Week 9. Remember, this is only a three-week postseason with the finals being played Nov. 16 at Norwin. Is the 16-year championship streak for Aliquippa in jeopardy? I say don’t bet against the Quips.

Class 3A

12 qualifiers (three wild cards)

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 1 Imani Christian – bye

No. 9 Mt. Pleasant at No. 8 Freeport

No. 4 Elizabeth Forward – bye

No. 12 Greensburg Salem at No. 5 Beaver

No. 2 Avonworth – bye

No. 10 Highlands at No. 7 Southmoreland

No. 3 Central Valley – bye

No. 11 Hopewell/North Catholic winner at No. 6 Deer Lakes

Harlan says: Undefeated Imani Christian (9-0, 5-0) draws the No. 1 seed here. Teams from the strong Western Hills get seeds two (Avonworth), three (Central Valley) and five (Beaver) with Interstate champ Elizabeth Forward at four. North Catholic and Hopewell meet Friday for what could be a play-in game. Or might the football committee take both teams and bump Greensburg Salem from the field?

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 1 Imani Christian – bye

No. 9 Mt. Pleasant at No. 8 Freeport

No. 4 Central Valley – bye

No. 12 Highlands at No. 5 Beaver

No. 2 Avonworth – bye

No. 10 North Catholic at No. 7 Southmoreland

No. 3 Elizabeth Forward – bye

No. 11 Hopewell at No. 6 Deer Lakes

Rebel says: I give a lot of love in this bracket to the Western Hills Conference, with seeds 2, 4, 5, 10 and 11, with two of the three wild cards coming from that conference. This could really change with key matchups Friday such as Freeport at Imani Christian, Beaver hosting Avonworth and Elizabeth Forward at Mt. Pleasant.

Class 2A

13 qualifiers (four wild cards)

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 1 Seton LaSalle – bye

No. 9 Waynesburg at No. 8 Mohawk/Riverside winner

No. 13 Washington at No. 4 South Allegheny/Steel Valley winner

No. 12 Carlynton at No. 5 South Allegheny/Steel Valley loser

No. 2 Ellwood City – bye

No. 10 Mohawk/Riverside loser at No. 7 Keystone Oaks

No. 3 South Park – bye

No. 11 Our Lady of the Sacred Heart at No. 6 Western Beaver

Harlan says: Steel Valley hosts South Allegheny on Friday for second place in the Allegheny. If the game is competitive, they could draw the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds. If not, bump Western Beaver up a spot. Carlynton hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2001, but the Cougars (5-4, 2-3) can likely land a wild card with a win Friday over Charleroi (1-8, 1-4). Here, Washington (5-4, 3-2) also gets a wild card over New Brighton (4-5, 2-4) or Union (2-6, 2-4). The other wild cards go to OLSH and whichever teams loses Friday’s Mohawk/Riverside matchup.

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 1 Seton LaSalle – bye

No. 9 Waynesburg Central at No. 8 South Allegheny/Steel Valley loser

No. 13 Washington at No. 4 South Allegheny/Steel Valley winner

No. 12 Carlynton at No. 5 Western Beaver

No. 2 Ellwood City – bye

No. 10 Riverside/Mohawk loser at No. 7 Keystone Oaks

No. 3 South Park – bye

No. 11 Our Lady of the Sacred Heart at No. 6 Riverside/Mohawk winner

Rebel says: Seton LaSalle or Ellwood City as the No. 1 seed is a legit debate. Obviously the standout games in 2A on Friday are South Allegheny at Steel Valley in the Allegheny Conference and Riverside visiting Mohawk in the Midwestern Athletic Conference. Could there be a celebration for Carlynton? If they beat Charleroi, the Cougars will be part of the bubble brigade entering Saturday with wild card hopes.

Class A

16 qualifiers (four wild cards)

Chris Harlan’s bracket

No. 16 Tri-County South fourth place at No. 1 Fort Cherry

No. 9 GCC/Leechburg loser at No. 8 Neshannock/Laurel loser

No. 13 Jeannette at No. 4 Neshannock/Laurel winner

No. 12 South Side/Rochester winner at No. 5 Cornell/Monessen winner

No. 15 Tri-County South third place at No. 2 Clairton

No. 10 Cornell/Monessen loser at No. 7 Jefferson-Morgan/California winner

No. 14 South Side/Rochester loser at No. 3 Bishop Canevin

No. 11 Jefferson-Morgan/California loser at No. 6 GCC/Leechburg winner

Harlan says: This is the most unsettled of the six classifications. There are five games to watch on Friday. Neshannock hosts Laurel for the Big 7 title. Jefferson-Morgan visits California for the Tri-County South title. Leechburg and Greensburg Central Catholic play for second place in the Eastern. Cornell and Monessen meet for third in the Black Hills. Rochester plays South Side for third in the Big 7. Carmichaels, Bentworth and West Greene enter Week 9 in a three-way tie for third in the Tri-County South. At least one of the three — and maybe two — will get left out of the playoffs.

Don Rebel’s bracket

No. 16 Tri-County South third place at No. 1 Fort Cherry

No. 9 South Side/Rochester winner at No. 8 Greensburg Central Catholic/Leechburg loser

No. 13 Jeannette at No. 4 Bishop Canevin

No. 12 South Side/Rochester loser at No. 5 Greensburg Central Catholic/Leechburg winner

No. 15 Jefferson-Morgan/California loser at No. 2 Clairton

No. 10 Cornell at No. 7 Laurel/Neshannock loser

No. 14 Brentwood at No. 3 Laurel/Neshannock winner

No. 11 Monessen at No. 6 Jefferson-Morgan/California winner

Rebel says: I’ve said it all year: This is a deep Class A playoff field. Fort Cherry and Clairton are the teams to beat, but there are no guarantees they will be having Breakfast on the North Shore. Obviously there are a lot of variables going into key games such as Laurel visiting Neshannock for the Big 7 Conference crown, Greensburg Central Catholic at Leechburg for second place in the Eastern Conference, and Rochester hosting South Side for third place in the Big 7. There is great excitement of the Tri-County South Conference title game with California home to undefeated Jefferson-Morgan, but while the loser is already in, it may drop a long way in the seedings.

Chris Harlan is a TribLive reporter covering sports. He joined the Trib in 2009 after seven years as a reporter at the Beaver County Times. He can be reached at charlan@triblive.com.

Tags: Central Catholic, Fort Cherry, Imani Christian, Montour, Seton La Salle, Upper St. Clair